Last updated: 1/21/2017

Player Actuals vs Projections

Accuracy by Position

About

The app allows you to calculate custom rankings and projections for your league based on your league settings. The projections incorporate more sources of projections than any other site, and have been the most accurate projections over the last 4 years. We update the projections as the season approaches with more and updated sources of projections.

User Inputs

  • Season: which season of projections to use.
  • AAV: source of average auction values.
  • ADP: source of average draft position.
  • League Scoring: source of scoring settings.
  • Positions: which positions of players to include in calculations.
  • VOR Baseline: the position rank set to be the "typical replacement player" for each position. We set the default baseline VOR value as the number of players drafted at each position within the top 100 picks, based on ADP on MyFantasyLeague.com. You can modify the VOR baseline values. For info on how to select a typical replacement for each position, see here.
  • Impute Replacement-Level Points for Missed Games: Select yes to add points of the "typical replacement player" for each game a player is expected to miss due to suspensions.
  • Calculation Type: The type of average to calculate: mean, weighted average, or robust average. By default, a weighted average is used with analysts weighted by their historical accuracy. You can modify the weights in the weighted average. The mean is equivalent to a weighted average where all analysts are equally weighted (weights = 1). The robust average gives less weight to outliers (crazy projections).
  • Analysts: Select which analysts to include and, if weighted average, the weights for each analyst (i.e., how much weight to give each source of projections when calculating projected points). For instance, if you want to exclude ESPN projections, you would give them a weight of 0. If you want to give Yahoo projections twice the weight of CBS, you would give Yahoo a weight of 2 and CBS a weight of 1.
  • Scoring Settings: specify the number of points for each statistical category and position.

Filters

  • Positions: specify which positions of players to display.
  • Only sleepers (max per position): specify how many sleepers at each position to display. Sleepers were selected as the players with the greatest risk who have a ceiling > 80 and a low position rank (ranked lower than 80% of the VOR baseline for each position, except for Kickers and DST, for whom the player's position rank is lower than 8). In other words, sleepers are players with a high degree of uncertainty, low position rank, and high ceiling.
  • Maximum Risk Tolerance: Selects the maximum risk allowed for any player to be included.
  • Compare Players: specify specific players to compare.
  • Exclude Players: specify players to exclude.

Output

  • Rank: Overall rank by VOR.
  • Player (Team): Player's name and team.
  • Pos: Position
  • VOR: Value Over Typical Replacement Player. Used to rank players across positions. Calculated by comparing players' projected points to a "typical" replacement player at the same position (determined by VOR baseline values). For more info on how VOR is calculated, see here.
  • Points: Average projected points for a player across analysts.
  • Ceiling: A player's upside, calculated as the 90th percentile of a player's projected points across analysts.
  • Floor: A player's downside, calculated as the 10th percentile of a player's projected points across analysts.
  • ECR Rank: Expert Consensus Ranking from FantasyPros.
  • Pos Rank: Position rank.
  • ADP: Average draft position.
  • ADP Diff: The difference between ranking and ADP (lower values reflect more under-valued players that are better to target).
  • AAV: Average auction value.
  • Dropoff: The "dropoff" in projected points for the next best 2 players at the same position.
  • Risk: Risk of injury and degree of uncertainty of players' projected points, calculated as the average of: 1) injury risk from Sports Injury Predictor, and 2) the standard deviation of the players' projected points and rankings across analysts. Standardized to have a mean of 5 and a standard deviation of 2 (higher values reflect greater risk).

Graph

Displays a density plot of projected points by analyst. A density plot shows, for each analyst, what proportion of players are projected to score a given number of points. Density plots can be helpful for comparing analysts and finding analysts with wildly different projections.

Accuracy

Examines the accuracy of historical projections by position. Displays a scatterplot of projected versus actual points. Includes an interactive scatterplot: hover over dots to identify players' projected and actual points. Table includes accuracy estimates by position:

  • mean error (ME): closer to zero is better (positive values mean the projections are under-estimates, negative values mean the projections are over-estimates)
  • root-mean squared error (RMSE): lower is better
  • mean absolute error (MAE): lower is better
  • mean percentage error (MPE): closer to zero is better (positive values mean the projections are under-estimates, negative values mean the projections are over-estimates)
  • mean absolute percentage error (MAPE): lower is better
  • mean absolute scaled error (MASE): lower is better
  • R-squared (RSQ): higher is better

R-squared is measure of relative fit, whereas the others are measures of absolute fit.

Authors

Created by the team at Fantasy Football Analytics.

More Information

For more information how the app works