Last updated: 1/21/2017

Lineup with Highest Points

Lineup with Highest Floor

Lineup with Highest Ceiling

Player Actuals vs Projections

Accuracy by Position

About

The app helps you pick the best players to draft in your Auction draft, by maximizing your starting lineup's projected points within your risk tolerance and league cap. The projections incorporate more sources of projections than any other site, and have been the most accurate projections over the last 4 years. We update the projections as the season approaches with more and updated sources of projections.

User Inputs

  • Season: which season of projections to use.
  • Week: which week(s) of projections to use.
  • Number of Teams: the number of teams in your league.
  • League Cap: the cap available for each team at the beginning of the draft.
  • Cap Reserved for Bench: how much cap to reserve for your bench players.
  • Total Players on Roster: the total number of players on roster, including bench players.
  • Number of Starters by Position: how many players in your starting lineup at each position.
  • High Rank: the rank of the highest tier of players for inflating costs.
  • Low Rank: the rank of the lowest tier of players for deflating costs.
  • High Rank Cost Multiplier: the inflation/deflation multiplier for players with a High Rank (or higher).
  • Mid Rank Cost Multiplier: the inflation/deflation multiplier for players with between the High Rank and Low Rank.
  • Low Rank Cost Multiplier: the inflation/deflation multiplier for players with a Low Rank (or lower).
  • AAV: source of average auction values.
  • League Scoring: source of scoring settings.
  • Positions: which positions of players to include in calculations.
  • VOR Baseline: the position rank set to be the “typical replacement player” for each position. We set the default baseline VOR value as the number of players drafted at each position within the top 100 picks, based on ADP on MyFantasyLeague.com. You can modify the VOR baseline values. For info on how to select a typical replacement for each position, see here.
  • Impute Replacement-Level Points for Missed Games: Select yes to add points of the "typical replacement player" for each game a player is expected to miss due to suspensions.
  • Calculation Type: the type of average to calculate: mean, weighted average, or robust average. By default, a weighted average is used with analysts weighted by their historical accuracy. You can modify the weights in the weighted average. The mean is equivalent to a weighted average where all analysts are equally weighted (weights = 1). The robust average gives less weight to outliers (crazy projections).
  • Analysts: Select which analysts to include and, if weighted average, the weights for each analyst (i.e., how much weight to give each source of projections when calculating projected points). For instance, if you want to exclude ESPN projections, you would give them a weight of 0. If you want to give Yahoo projections twice the weight of CBS, you would give Yahoo a weight of 2 and CBS a weight of 1.
  • Scoring Settings: specify the number of points for each statistical category and position.

Sidebar

  • Maximum Risk Tolerance: Selects the maximum risk allowed for any player to be considered for inclusion in the optimal starting lineup.
  • Remaining Cap for Starters: How much cap you have remaining to spend on starters.
  • Players You Drafted: Select all players you’ve already drafted (click "Pick" button next to player or type player’s name).
  • Other Players Drafted: Select all players that other teams have drafted (click player’s name or type player’s name).

Output

  • Lineup with Highest Points: Players with highest sum of projected points within your league cap and risk tolerance.
  • Lineup with Highest Floor: Players with highest sum of projected floor within your league cap and risk tolerance.
  • Lineup with Highest Ceiling: Players with highest sum of projected ceiling within your league cap and risk tolerance.
  • Pick: Click “Pick” button next to player to add to “Players You Drafted”.
  • Rank: Overall rank by VOR.
  • Player (Team): Player name and team. Click player's name to add to "Other Players Drafted".
  • Pos: Position
  • VOR: Value Over Typical Replacement Player. Used to rank players across positions. Calculated by comparing players' projected points to a "typical" replacement player at the same position (determined by VOR baseline values). For more info on how VOR is calculated, see here.
  • Points: Average projected points for a player across analysts.
  • Ceiling: A player’s upside, calculated as the 90th percentile of a player’s projected points across analysts.
  • Floor: A player’s downside, calculated as the 10th percentile of a player’s projected points across analysts.
  • ECR Rank: Expert Consensus Ranking from FantasyPros.
  • Pos Rank: Position rank.
  • AAV: Average auction value.
  • Cost: Cost you can expect and should be willing to pay for a player if he is selected by the optimizer.
  • Dropoff: The “dropoff” in projected points for the next best 2 players at the same position.
  • Risk: Risk of injury and degree of uncertainty of players' projected points, calculated as the average of: 1) injury risk from Sports Injury Predictor, and 2) the standard deviation of the players' projected points and rankings across analysts. Standardized to have a mean of 5 and a standard deviation of 2 (higher values reflect greater risk).

Graph

Displays a density plot of projected points by analyst. A density plot shows, for each analyst, what proportion of players are projected to score a given number of points. Density plots can be helpful for comparing analysts and finding analysts with wildly different projections. Also displays line plots of each optimal starting lineup by projected points, floor, and ceiling. The dot represents the average (mean, weighted average, or robust average) estimate of projected points for each player. The line shows the range from a player's floor to ceiling.

Accuracy

Examines the accuracy of historical projections by position. Displays a scatterplot of projected versus actual points. Includes an interactive scatterplot: hover over dots to identify players' projected and actual points. Table includes accuracy estimates by position:

  • mean error (ME): closer to zero is better (positive values mean the projections are under-estimates, negative values mean the projections are over-estimates)
  • root-mean squared error (RMSE): lower is better
  • mean absolute error (MAE): lower is better
  • mean percentage error (MPE): closer to zero is better (positive values mean the projections are under-estimates, negative values mean the projections are over-estimates)
  • mean absolute percentage error (MAPE): lower is better
  • mean absolute scaled error (MASE): lower is better
  • R-squared (RSQ): higher is better

R-squared is measure of relative fit, whereas the others are measures of absolute fit.

Authors

Created by the team at Fantasy Football Analytics.

More Information

For more information how the app works